By Chang Noi
Published on December 22, 2008
THE OVERTHROW of the PPP government was justified on grounds its electoral success was based on vote-buying and hence illegitimate. Now the Democrats have been wafted into power by the divine intervention of Newin Chidchob. Should we laugh or cry? Newin is allegedly Thailand
In 1995, police raided a Buri Ram shophouse and found Bt11.3 million in small denomination notes, some stapled to a campaign flyer for Newin. These facts are not in doubt, nor (for most people) is the interpretation. But the election law is rather like the prostitution law. Police have to catch the client both engaged in the act and paying the money at the same time, which is technically a bit difficult. Judges convicted the shophouse owner, thus confirming that vote-buying had taken place on behalf of Newin. But they excused the man who had benefited on grounds there was no direct evidence of his involvement.
In a tape transcript allegedly recorded in Songkhla in January 2005, someone addressed as "minister" proposes "we will buy everything everywhere" to overtake poll rivals. "I'd like to challenge all of you from these 25 tambons in this way. If Thai Rak Thai wins, I'll give each tambon Bt100,000. Will you be able to take my money? I'll leave the money with the governors.
"On the morning of February 7, come and take it if we win. Take the money first, and we'll take care of the yellow and red cards later. Get the winning votes, then come to collect the money from the governors, and go celebrate."
The press identified the voice as Newin. He was the only minister in Songkhla at the time. This attempt at wholesale vote-buying failed, but Newin escaped again. The Election Commission, firmly under Thaksinite influence, ruled that the tape-recording was "indecipherable" even though various Thai newspapers transcribed it word for same word.
Politics has no use for irony. But the role of Newin has big implications for the incoming government. Newin's nominees hold the balance of power in Parliament.
Newin has been a prominent figure in Thai politics for over a decade. He has been a minister for much of that time (sometimes through a nominee). It is hard to think of an achievement of national benefit from that time in office. It is even harder to think of any speech or statement by Newin about his political vision. Perhaps his best-remembered quote came after another court case when he narrowly escaped being banned from Parliament. He praised the judges' narrow 7-6 split-decision as "the beauty of democracy".
He was Agriculture Minister through the Thaksin era and the resulting scandals are just reaching the courts. Earlier this year, Mingkwan Saengsuwan secured a huge budget for rice price support and then woke up next morning to find the project had been ripped from his hands by Newin. The price of his support for the current government has been very high. The Communications Ministry has the largest and chunkiest capital budget of them all. The Interior Ministry is the single most powerful ministry, and many of those powers are marketable. This truly is the beauty of democracy.
What does this portend for the Democrat-led coalition?
The installation of the Abhisit government has been an action replay of Chuan II in 1997. With an economic crisis looming, pressure from the army and business, fractured parties in the ruling coalition allowing the Democrats to stitch together a government, rewarding the splitters with plum ministries. A key figure in that split was Vatana Asavahem, now a fugitive from justice after conviction for massive corruption. After two in a row, this is confirmed as the Democrat Party route to power.
But as a guide to the prospects for the Abhisit government, Chuan I looks better than Chuan II. In 1992, the Democrats headed a coalition formed in the aftermath of the May 1992 political crisis. The crisis had stirred up hopes for reform and progress in many forms, and these hopes were riding on the Chuan government. Similar hopes are now riding on Abhisit.
The Chuan I government did a relatively good job with the economy. It reformed taxation, brought down tariffs, pushed for the Asean Free Trade Area, and completed reforms of the financial sector begun under its predecessor. The economic impact of the 1992 political crisis was minimised because Chuan's economic team was credible, foreign confidence was restored, and domestic business cooperated with government plans. Growth revived after only a small dip.
But other hopes for reform in the constitution, local government, judiciary, media, social policy, and the bureaucracy were sadly disappointed. In almost every case, the pattern was the same. Conservative forces were able to manipulate the minor parties in the coalition to undermine proposals for reform. Because the Democrats depended on these minor parties for its majority, it was repeatedly vulnerable to this political blackmail.
Management of the fractious coalition sapped the government's energy and ultimately brought the Chuan I government crashing down in a slew of corruption scandals. The finale was the SPK-401 land scandal, which involved several Democrat Party members, but there were many others involving the coalition partners. One coalition MP was indicted in the
The way these scandals were exposed may also be a guide to this government's fate. It was not the NGOs, academics, and other whistle-blowers that delivered the killer blow but a group of young politicians. Judging by their involvement in scandals under the following Banharn and Chavalit governments, they were not interested in cleaning up corruption, but taking it over. Newin was one of this group. But then that is the beauty of democracy.
http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/22/opinion/opinion_30091546.php
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