THAI POLITICS
So far not so good for Abhisit's govt
By: THITINAN PONGSUDIRAK
Published: 6/02/2009 at 12:00 AM
As it assumed office in less than ideal circumstances just over a month ago, the new government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has had a number of deficits to make up for.
On this score, the Abhisit government has responded quickly with a raft of populist policies and deficit-financing to cushion impending hardships in lost jobs, corporate bankruptcies, weakening consumer purchasing power, slowing revenue, and poor exports and investment prospects.
The fiscal tap remains open with further stimulus expenditure and planned social safety nets from additional domestic deficit-financing and foreign borrowings.
While its pursuit of economic recovery and revival in dire times holds promise, the Abhisit government is less successful on the promotion of national reconciliation and the avoidance of corruption and graft.
The ongoing scandal over government procurement that has claimed the resignation of Social Development and Human Security Minister Witoon Nambutr, bodes ill for government stability.
If the outgoing minister's case is a harbinger of future graft scandals, the Democrat party-led government's longevity will be in doubt.
Moreover, the growing noises of the anti-government United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) will add pressure to government performance and Mr Abhisit's proclaimed integrity.
Mr Witoon's resignation stems from irregularities involving the government's provision of flood relief supplies that included rotten canned fish to a southern province.
The fishy canned fish deal is seen as a procurement infraction where commissions may have taken place.
While it relieves pressure on the prime minister, the downfall of Mr Witoon, who was earlier cleared of a vote-buying charge that could have dissolved the Democrat party, is indicative of the dynamics and constraints within the coalition government on the one hand and the ruling party on the other.
An MP from the Northeast, where the Democrat Party is scarcely represented, Mr Witoon's replacement will be yet another MP from the same province. This means that the Democrats operate more on a regional quota basis than on merits, reflecting Mr Abhisit's limitations.
When it comes to backroom manoeuvres and dirty deals, Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban, who himself faces a vote-fraud probe, is in charge.
At the same time, another cabinet member, Boonjong Wongtrairat of Bhumjaithai party, is mired in a vote-buying investigation involving the hand-out of relief funds for the poor along with his name card. The allegation centres on the association between the government's funds and his name card.
Bhumjaithai is a small collection of MPs, mostly from the Northeast, without which the coalition government would collapse.
It has thus been given a disproportionately large quota of cabinet posts. Bhumjaithai firmly backs Mr Boonjong, tying the hands of the PM and the Democrats into the same position.
The longer the fishy Boonjong case drags on, the more the Democrat-led government's image and Mr Abhisit's integrity and good governance pledges will be tarnished.
The Abhisit government is in a tight spot. While its efforts to shore up the economy and restore investor and stakeholder confidence are being given the benefit of the doubt, its management of corruption and graft - the Achilles' heel of every Thai government - is problematic.
It is alarming that the Witoon and Boonjong cases surfaced in a matter of days after they took office. If this rate of graft allegations keeps up, it is likely to erode government legitimacy and slash months off Mr Abhisit's rule.
To make matters worse for the government, the UDD is back in full force. Its protest rally in the streets on Jan 31 brought out some 30,000-odd red-shirted UDD followers who are supportive of convicted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and opposed to the pro-government People's
With unappealing leadership, apparent shortage of funds and defections of key columns in the lower Northeast to the government's side, the UDD's considerable and resilient show of strength will pile pressure on government stability on top of the graft scandals.
Just as the PAD appeared to work hand-in-glove in street protests with the Democrats in Parliament last year, the UDD will be in cahoots with the opposition Puea Thai party this year.
If the economy turns inexorably south despite the various stimulus measures, Mr Abhisit's legitimacy-building efforts that bank on economic recovery, integrity and reconciliation may well come to naught, bringing forward his government's endgame before many Thais who are tired of intractable crisis and quagmire would prefer to see.
The writer is Director of the
( Bangkokpost.com )
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