What has the junta achieved?

 

What has the junta achieved?    

2 Sep 2008 

When Thailand's military top brass take stock of their accomplishments in 2007, there may be some serious helmet scratching over whether their September 19, 2006, coup was worth the effort.

True, they raised the defence budget by a good 35 per cent, drew up a wish list of new weapons - including a submarine - worth 9.3 billion dollars to be purchased over the next decade, and got a few generals lucrative posts at state enterprises.

They also pushed through a new constitution that makes it a lot harder for anyone to monopolize Thailand's political scene the way coup-ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his Thai Rak Thai party did from 2001 to 2006, upsetting the country's old elite.

And most likely a new Internal Security Act will be adopted before the general election on December 23, to institutionalize the army's lead role in security matters including future political crises, and re-establish the Internal Security Operations Command as a key player in the provinces.

But has the exercise really been worth it? From the start, even the coup makers have shown themselves to be reluctant dictators.

"This last coup was not normal," said Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University who is considered Thailand's leading expert on the military matters.

"Their grip on power was not tight, the way they administered the coup was not well planned and once they took power they were quite reluctant to use power," he said.

Only in Thailand, which has experienced 18 military coups since 1932, when the absolute monarchy was overthrown by junior officers, can one make a distinction between a normal and an abnormal coup.

One thing is certain, the September 19 coup was a lot less successful on the economic front than the military's 1991 coup.

The 1991 coup put in place a team of technocrats led by the far-sighted former diplomat Anand Panyarachun, who pushed through more than 300 laws that put the country's economy well on the road to globalization.

It may have been a step back for democracy, but many Thais thought the sacrifice well worth it.

Things have been a lot different this time round. Thailand's appointed cabinet led by Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, a retired army general, has failed to stimulate the economy in 2007 and instead pushed legislation that has scared away private investment.

Thailand's economy is expected to grow only 4.3 per cent this year, the lowest in South-East Asia.

Most economists blame the poor performance on Thailand's political crisis, which started in early 2006 with protests against Thaksin, and is far from over.

The September 19 coup has kept Thaksin out of Thailand for the past year. He has been enjoying self-exile in England, where he purchased the Manchester City football club, but it has not kept him out of Thailand's political picture.

"They have taken back power but they can't subdue the forces that were released during Thaksin's time," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies. Chief among those forces are higher expectations from Thailand's poor for a better deal from the state.

Thaksin's main contribution to Thai politics were populist policies that promised and delivered services to the rural and urban poor, and won his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party two elections in 2001 and 2005.

Although the party was disbanded by the Constitutional Court in May, and its 111 top members including Thaksin banned from politics over the next five years, his populist legacy lives on.

At least three of the political parties contesting the December 23 polls are offspring of the TRT. People Power Party's leader (PPP) Samak Sundaravej has openly declared himself a "nominee" for Thaksin.

Given Thaksin's ongoing popularity, especially in the north and north-eastern regions where the majority on the rural poor live, chances are high that the party will win the most seats in the general election.

Thailand's post-election stability hinges on how many seats PPP wins and whether Samak, an outspoken and brash politician, becomes the next prime minister.

"The worst case scenario is that Khun (Mr) Samak wins by a landslide, sets up a government and starts to prosecute the military and initiates an amnesty law to bring back Thaksin," said Panitan. "I'm sure that within days you will see the tanks on the street."

That is a scenario even the military may have mixed emotions about.

"The coup has become the easiest part now," said Thitinan. "What to do with Thailand is the hard part."

Thailand's political challenges ahead will test the credibility of any government, let alone another army-appointed one.

"We have a neo-feudal society in the 21st century, which is anachronistic and incompatible with the new trends, new expectations and new demands," Thitinan said. "It's going to give way." (dpa)

(http://www.bangkokpost.net/topstories/topstories.php?id=124358 )